Аннотация: The rising Russian ruble and the falling Turkish lira. An economic note.
The rising Russian ruble and the falling Turkish lira. An economic note.
After the sharp fall of the Russian ruble, the public watched the efforts of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to restore the exchange rate. The budget-fed media used every opportunity to directly or indirectly - proudly - mention the appreciation or stability of the Russian ruble.
Meanwhile, there was information about the decline in car sales in Russia. The level of sales decreased by 43 percent. "Car sales in Russia in March [2022] fell by 43%. According to Avtostat, less than 80,000 cars were sold in March." [unofficial translation] (https://www.autonews.ru/news/624c6f589a794779efc68d8f?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop)
In this regard, the economic processes taking place in Turkey are of interest.
I noted earlier that Turkish economic policy takes time to achieve results.
Will Turkey have enough time and resources to achieve positive economic results?
In my opinion, Turkey has real chances to achieve economic success.
So, modern Turkey is characterized by high inflation rates (about 60 percent in 2022) and a falling lira.
Data on car production in Turkey comes:
"Turkish car production hit record low
March 14, 2022, 12:15
In the first two months of 2022, 109,322 vehicles were produced in the first two months of 2022, according to data released on Monday by the Association of Automotive Manufacturers (OSD).
Export amounted to 85 thousand 682 cars...
In February, inflation hit an annual rate of 54.4%, the highest level in two decades.
Production of all vehicles fell 11.7% year on year to 196,164 units in the first two months.
Imports decreased by 16.5% to 50,719 units." (https://mk-turkey.ru/economics/2022/03/14/proizvodstvo-avtomobilej-v-turcii-upalo-do-rekordno-nizkogo-urovnya.html)
Let's try to compare the data for Russia and Turkey.
"According to Rosstat, in the first two months of 2022, 203,000 cars rolled off Russian conveyors... Production of trucks in January-February amounted to 26,100 units..." [unofficial translation] (https://www.autostat.ru/news/ 51065/)
Total: 229.1 thousand pieces.
If we do not take into account exports and imports, then the production of cars in Russia in January-February 2022 exceeded the production of cars in Turkey: 229.1 divided by 109.3 we get: 2.1.
Territory of Russia: 17,125,191 square kilometers. Turkey: 783,562 square kilometers. Excess: 17,125,191 divided by 783,562 gives 21.9. Exceeding 22 times.
Population. Russia - 145,557,576 people (2022). Turkey - 83.6 million people. (2021). Excess: 1.74 times.
That is, the population of Russia was approximately twice the population of Turkey, and the territory of Russia exceeded the territory of Turkey by 22 times.
At the same time, the number of cars produced in Russia was twice the number of cars produced in Turkey (data for January-February 2022).
We can meet the more general information.
"ANKARA, Apr 4 (Xinhua) -- Turkey's exports rose 19.8 percent year-on-year to $22.7 billion in March this year...
... the trend of export growth that has been outlined since 2021 continues.
The country's imports in March amounted to $30.9 billion, with a significant share taken by the import of energy resources, the head of the department said." [unofficial translation] (Http://russian.news.cn/2022-04/05/c_1310543825.htm?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop&utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fyandex.by%2Fnews%2Fstory%2FVmarte_obem_ehksporta_Turcii_dostig_rekordnogo_pokazatelya_v227_mlrd_dollarov--bd956bf75cb0fe1c3d3e28d153ed4883)
The presented information makes it possible to be optimistic about the prospects of Turkish economic policy.
The question arises: what is the meaning of the appreciation of the ruble? "MOSCOW, April 5 [2022] /TASS/. SberCIB Investment Research predicts the average exchange rate of the ruble at the end of 2022 at the level of 100 rubles per dollar within the baseline scenario" [unofficial translation] (https://tass.ru/ekonomika/14289171?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop)
A lot of obscure, almost mysterious ... It remains to observe the events ...
April 6, 2022 05:38
Translation from Russian into English: April 6, 2022 06:08.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский "Растущий российский рубль и падающая турецкая лира. Экономическая заметка".
{ 2894. Растущий российский рубль и падающая турецкая лира. Экономическая заметка.
MMDCCCLXIV. The rising Russian ruble and the falling Turkish lira. An economic note. }